East Coast Gambler

The Super Bowl is almost upon us and the Jets are still alive!  What a great playoff run.  We keep JMP’s picks going.  As you’ll see, fantasy football wrap ups continue next week.

NYJ @ IND (-7.5): The Colts were well on their way to covering a spread like this when they pulled most/all their starters and blew any chance at a perfect season.  I don’t think the Jets can keep this close.  It’s been a great ride, but it’s over.  Colts to cover.

MIN @ NO (-3.5): interesting line; I would’ve expected 3.  I really think the Vikes have a chance to win this.  NO hasn’t been able to stop the run well since Sedrick Ellis returned from injury and if their secondary isn’t getting picks, their pass D isn’t great either.  This should be a high scoring game that comes down to a FG, either way.  So that extra half-point is key.  I like the Vikes.

Back next week with WR rankings and then in 2 weeks with RB rankings and I guess I’ll pick the last game of the season too!

Last week: 1-4

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Welcome back to JMPlayoff Picks!  1-3 last week, but it still beats Bill Simmons who went 0-4.  My lone bright spot was the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets.  Let’s see if I continue to roll with them, shall we?  Once again, these lines are from vegas.com.

ARI @ NO (-7) – Arizona’s win over Green Bay was the misfire that bothered me the least.  It was a back and forth affair; had Aaron Rodgers connected with Greg Jennings on that long pass in OT, GB most likely would’ve won.  I’m going to pick the Cards here, as I don’t like the way the Saints ended their season and am concerned about the rust factor.

BAL @ IND (-6.5) – Baltimore’s thrashing of the Pats bothered me a lot, relatively speaking, mainly b/c it seemed like the Pats didn’t even bother to show up!  I’d like to think Peyton and Company show up, but Baltimore always plays them tough.  I like the Ravens to beat the spread here.

DAL @ MIN (-3) – Dallas’ win also irked me b/c the Eagles failed to show up, as well.  Now we’ve got Wade Phillips against Brad Childress.  Ugh.  Dallas is playing some inspired ball right now and the ‘vaunted’ MIN D hasn’t been the same since EJ Henderson got injured and Antoine ‘Toast’ Winfield got ‘healthy’.  This game has ‘push’ written all over it, but just in case it doesn’t turn out that way, I’ll take the ’boys.

NYJ @ SD (-7) – everyone loves the Chargers this year.  That means this is the year Norv screws the proverbial pooch.  If they don’t lose outright this week, they probably will next week.  So let’s spend another week on the Jets bandwagon, since a good running game and a great D travel well, even with a rookie QB.

Last week: 1-3

Overall playoffs: 1-3

Regular season: 124-129-3

Tight End rankings

What?  You thought I was gonna give up the good stuff (RBs and WRs) prior to the Super Bowl?  Oh no.  I whetted your appetites last week with QBs, but you’ll have to keep reading for a couple of weeks more to get the ‘good stuff’.  That said, TEs are important to me, as in my money league they are the only ones who get a PPR bonus.  So, without further ado…

1)      Dallas Clark – wrests the top spot away from such luminaries as Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates.  Never stays in to block, gets the looks at the goal line, has a stud QB.  Quite frankly, that’s all you need!

2)      Antonio Gates – kept out of the top spot b/c Rivers never looks his way at the goal line and will disappear in games where Vincent Jackson can beat his man.

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The NFL playoffs are upon us!  As the NFL regular season has come to an end JMP graces us with his Wild Card round playoff picks as well as his wrap up of NFL quarterbacks for fantasy football.  I did so poorly this year in my fantasy football league that I have no opinion on the QB’s.

Go Jets!

Only 4 games this weekend, so I’ll pump up my word count with some QB rankings for 2010’s fantasy season.  I figure it’s a good idea to get these thoughts written down somewhere so I’ll have a starting point in July.  What’s that, you say?  Most drafts don’t happen till at least August?  Maybe so, but when do you think prep should start?  For some of us, there is no offseason! RBs will probably be next week, unless I decide to use them to seriously inflate the column where I pick the Super Bowl.

Oh, btw, now that Yahoo!’s Pick ‘em game has ended, I’ll be using vegas.com for the lines.  Since I’m a Harrah’s kind of guy, I’ll use whatever Caesars is using.

NYJ @ CIN (-2.5): this one’s tough because the Bengals faded down the stretch, even before they rested starters and went vanilla in Week 17.  I don’t know which of Bill Simmons’ playoff rules trumps the other between “don’t take a rookie QB on the road” and “when in doubt, back the better coach”, but since Sanchez isn’t QB as much as he is a “guy who hands the ball off”, I’m going to take the Jets here.

PHI @ DAL (-4): despite living near Philly, I was born and raised in Middlesex County NJ and am lucky enough to get the FAN on my car radio down here.  So, when I hear Francessa talking about how the Eagles rarely blitzed last Sunday against the ‘boys, I know it’s a big issue that’ll be corrected come Saturday.  I like the Birds to beat the spread, but I still hope they find a way to lose, as dealing with Eagles fans at work during a playoff run is one of the more annoying aspects of my job.

BAL @ NE (-3.5): Irresistible force – Pats don’t like to stop the run and the Ravens have Ray Rice as well as Willis McGahee to vulture his TDs.  Immovable object – Ravens don’t like to stop the pass and the Pats still have Brady, Moss, Ben Watson and Kevin Faulk out of the backfield.  Irresistible force – serious Ewing Theory potential with Edelman replacing Welker.  This last one trumps everything else.  I’m a little concerned about that half-point, but I’ll still go NE here to cover.

GB @ ARI (-1): throw out last week b/c ARI played not to get hurt while, for some reason, GB felt like showing off.  Kurt Warner’s due for a stinker and GB would be favored by 2 on a neutral field.  University of Phoenix Stadium isn’t THAT much of a home-field advantage so I like the Packers to win outright.

QB Rankings

1)      Peyton Manning

2)      Drew Brees – falls in behind Peyton b/c the yardage totals weren’t there each and every week, but he’s really 1b to Peyton’s 1a.

3)      Aaron Rodgers – the consensus ‘best fantasy QB’ by some metric like ‘yards per attempt’ or something.  Still not #1 though since he’s still young and too many late-season games occur outdoors.

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It’s the last week of the NFL season.  I’ve been having internet problems all week so I’m finally getting JMP’s picks and fantasy football wrap up.  This was my worst year in fantasy football – ever.  JMP, thanks for your contributions all season!  On to the picks…

This column started off early on Saturday as just another picks column.  However, as the chores piled up, time went on and it became obvious I wasn’t getting this out such that TC could post it before Sunday morning I decided to roll my ‘fantasy post-mortem’ into it so it would have value either way you wish to read it.  It was an interesting fantasy season for me.  In my money league, I bottomed out at 3-6 before finishing 6-7 and sneaking into the playoffs (5^th out of 12 teams) where I promptly lost in week 14; read on to learn what star QB sunk me.  In my free league, I turned the #2 seed into a Yahoo virtual bronze trophy for 3^rd.

IND (-8.5) @ BUF: lost in all the hoopla surrounding what the Colts did in Week 16 and the emergence of Pierre Garcon is the fact that Dallas Clark is now the #1 TE in fantasy.  In my money league where only TEs get a PPR bonus, I would probably take him just after the upper tier of WRs go off the board.  In this game, I like Buffalo.   Sure, they still can’t stop the run, but the Colts will have to throw occasionally and it’s Curtis Painter slingin’ the pigskin back there and the Bills still have a stingy pass D.

JAC @ CLE (-1.5): MJD may be at or near the top in TDs, but his receptions slid this year and his yardage wasn’t what it should’ve been.  Part of it was David Garrard’s inconsistency but part of it was the playcalling.  Trading Mike Sims-Walker while his stock was high to get Thomas Jones was one of the highlights of my season.  The fact that I had to package him with SJax wasn’t so high, but more on that later.  Cleveland’s Jerome Harrison was firmly on both my benches for the fantasy playoffs during his breakout week, but I got beat so badly in one game it wouldn’t have mattered.  If you’re gonna lose, lose big, I always say.  Harrison will be overvalued in 2010; tread carefully because you don’t want to waste a 2^nd/3^rd round pick on 2010’s Amos Zereoue or Kevan Barlow.  In this game, I like the Jags b/c of the whole underdog thing.

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A new way to present JMP’s picks this week.  Click the image below to see the full sized image of  JMP’s week 14 NFL picks.

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I was thinking about making a small wager on the winner of the Heisman Trophy, but after looking at the odds I’m reconsidering.

• Colt McCoy   +300
• Mark Ingram -250
• Ndamukong Suh +700
• Tim Tebow +2000
• Toby Gerhart +200

Initially I was thinking of placing a small wager on Colt McCoy and Mark Ingram if the odds were close.  My thinking was that one bet would cover the other.  That wouldn’t be the case with the odds above.

Additionally, I just heard on ESPN that only 6% of Heisman ballots were submitted early.  That could certainly take some votes away from McCoy.  I’ll reconsider this tomorrow, but will probably just give this a pass.

What do you think?

Odds are from sportsbook.com.

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